Downstream 2012 Agenda

Downstream 2012 Agenda download
 

Day 1 Tuesday, 6 March 2012
 

8:30 a.m. Registration and coffee
 

9:00 a.m. Official Opening and Welcome from Energy News and Conferenz,
Opening remarks from the day one chair

Toby Stevenson - Sapere Research Group
 

9:10 a.m. Ministerial address: Developing our energy potential

  • An energy future for all New Zealanders
  • Creating a pathway for economic growth or understanding
  • The SOE partial privatisation
  • The challenges and opportunities ahead
  • New Zealand’s energy supply

 

9:30 a.m. Energy Sector Leaders’ Panel

Is the sector achieving customer, community and stakeholder buy-in through increasingly challenging times?

  • An outline of the main challenges and the market opportunities the sector faces and the ramifications these have for energy consumers
  • Where are the gaps in the public’s perception of the challenges?
  • A way forward and policy levers that may assist
  • How does our sector and its participants compare to international benchmarks
  • The export question – lessons learned. How can New Zealand create a significant export market for its energy intellect and products?

PANEL: Vince Hawksworth - TrustPower; Mark Binns - Meridian Energy; Harvey Weake - Methanex; Dennis Barnes - Contact Energy; Dr Patrick Strange - Transpower NZ; Ken Rivers - Refining NZ; Albert Brantley - Genesis Energy
FACILITATOR: Toby Stevenson - Sapere Research Group

 

10:30 a.m. Gas Supply Outlook 2012
Presentation of the nation’s forward gas supply curve for the next ten years.

  • Ramifications for gas-fired electricity generation, distribution
  • Upcoming exploration activities and 2P potential
  • What will this mean for pricing and liquidity?

John Kidd - McDouall Stuart Group

 

10:00 a.m. Morning tea

 

11:15 a.m. Electricity Generation Roadmap 2012

  • Will there be a near-term generation build cool-off on weak demand?
  • The Huntly retirement
  • Changes in the fuel mix – gas v renewables
  • Snapshot of the fleet in 2025

Gavin Evans - Energy News

 

11:35 a.m. Near-term New Zealand energy fuel scenarios

  • Impact of another gas discovery
  • The ETS – null and void, or causing real fuel and/or demand shift
  • 5-year electricity, gas, LPG and transport fuels demand forecast

Bryan Field - Ministry of Economic Development

 

12:00 p.m. FOUNDATION PARTNER ADDRESS: The National Grid 2012
An exclusive report from Transpower.

  • An update on Transpower’s major projects and its latest iteration of near-term demand and subsequent build scenarios
  • Network investment plans update
  • A Transpower view of the wider industry and the challenges faced

Dr Patrick Strange - Transpower

 

12:50 p.m. Lunch

 

1:50 p.m. FOUNDATION PARTNER ADDRESS: Stitching together the NZ Gas Story
Gas has been a huge and often unsung contributor to New Zealand for 40 years, as a result of some considerable vision and investment. The gas supply chain is complex and a further injection of wisdom, leadership and confidence is required to ensure all the working parts together deliver outcomes for gas consumers and New Zealand as a whole.

  • What do we need gas to do for NZ?
  • Gas, sustainability and the ETS
  • Ready to take advantage of the next big discovery?
  • Developing efficient gas markets
  • Retaining happy customers and investors

Steve Bielby - Gas Industry Company

 

2:40 p.m. PANEL DISCUSSION: Energy issues in Auckland
A consumer panel looking at the energy challenges facing the Auckland region.

  • Gas capacity already tight and forecast to accommodate growth only up to 2015
  • Electricity security of supply and costs
  • Economic impacts

PANEL: Allan Dobbie - New Zealand Sugar Company; Doug Watson - Fonterra; Len Houwers - Aretê Consulting; Richard Hale - Hale & Twomey
FACILITATOR: Toby Stevenson - Sapere Research Group
 

3:10 p.m. Afternoon tea

 

3:30 p.m. PANEL DISCUSSION: Energy supply solutions for Auckland
Responding to the consumer panel (previous session).

  • Changes in fuel demand – electricity, natural gas, LPG, petrol, diesel
  • The northern gas pipeline issue – government underwrite or regulatory policy flexibility
  • Electricity transmission and distribution scenarios

PANEL: Ken Rivers - Refining NZ; Lara Walker -  Greymouth Petroleum; Brenda Talacek - Vector; Steve Bielby - Gas Industry Company; John Clarke - Transpower; Bruce Forbes - Top Energy
FACILITATOR: Toby Stevenson - Sapere Research Group

 

3:55 p.m. Mayoral reply to energy issues and energy supply solutions sessions
HWM Len Brown,
Mayor, Auckland Council

 

4:15 p.m. The LPG renaissance in New Zealand
New LPG plants coming into production open up plenty of options for the domestic market
• LPG market update – Market trends, supply/demand outlook
• Market growth vs. Exports
• LPG’s role in the broader fuel diversity and redundancy discussion
Albert de Geest - Liquigas

 

5:00 p.m. End of day one & Networking Drinks

 

7:00 p.m. New Zealand Downstream Dinner
 

Day 2 Wednesday, 7 March 2012

 

8:45 a.m. Welcome from the Chair
Rod Oram
- Business Journalist

 

8.55 a.m. FOUNDATION PARTNER ADDRESS: Annual Regulated Energy Utilities Update
A report from the Commerce Commission on the future challenges for economic regulation of electricity and gas transmission and distribution under Part 4.

  • Stocktake on where we have got to in relation to Part 4 – reflections on the challenges and the process to date
  • How have the incentives played out?
  • Where to next?

John Hamill - Commerce Commission

 

9:40 a.m. Capital Markets update

  • Raising capital in the energy sector, 2012 and beyond
  • Project financing, capital raisings and regional capital markets
  • What are the key international drivers affecting the cost of capital
  • Generation privatisation
  • Iwi partnership considerations

PRESENTER: Rob Hamilton - First NZ Capital
PANEL REPLY: Craig Stent - Harbour Asset Management; Matthew Henry - Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ); Paul Chambers - Meridian Energy; Rob Hamilton - First NZ Capital; Michael Cummings – Brookfields Infrastructure
FACILILITATOR: John Hancock - Hewlett-Packard

 

10:30 a.m. Morning tea

 

10:50 a.m. PANEL DISCUSSION: Lines company consolidation – what are the benefits and risks?
Are the economic incentives for consolidation there or do we need to be more innovative?

  • Larger lines companies enjoy economies of scale that benefit consumers – fact or fiction?
  • Are there disincentives and can they be overcome?
  • The retailer viewpoint
  • What are some of the quasi-consolidation models that work – management companies etc.

PANEL: Gareth Wilson - Ministry of Economic Development; Jan Beange - Energy Trusts of New Zealand; Nigel Barbour - Powerco; Greg Houston - NERA Economic Consulting; Ian Kearney - Network Tasman
FACILITATOR: Kieran Murray - Sapere Research Group

 

11:50 a.m. KEYNOTE PRESENTATION: Annual New Zealand transport fuels outlook
New Zealand’s dependency on a global market for its #1 source of primary energy.

  • Regional trends with a local impact
  • Infrastructure and retailing shake-up – refinery impact
  • Update on refinery plans and near-term local fuel demand forecasts

Ken Rivers - Refining NZ

 

12:15 p.m. Lunch

 

1.00PM FOUNDATION PARTNER ADDRESS: New Zealand Electricity Market Update
An exclusive report from the Electricity Authority.

  • Stock-take on key components of the electricity market reforms
  • Market Monitoring report
  • Priorities for 2012

Carl Hansen - Electricity Authority

 

1:30 p.m. Electricity hedge market update 2012
ASX presentation on activity development on the hedge market followed by panel discussion.

  • Managing risk and volatility – a small retailer perspective
  • FTRs
  • The Australian experience

PRESENTER: Ken Chapman - Futures & Options, ASX
PANEL REPLY: Phil Gibson - Mighty River Power; Rob Foster - King Country Energy; Rod Oram - Business Journalist; Jason Franklin - PowerNet; Ari Sargent - Powershop; Murray Dyer - Simply Energy; Steve Gawn - ANZ National Bank
FACILITATOR: Toby Stevenson - Sapere Research Group

 

2:20 p.m. PANEL DISCUSSION: The water reform agenda
Over fifty per cent of New Zealand’s electricity production is water dependent.

  • Within what form of regulatory framework can natural environments and hydro-electricity production function optimally?
  • Pricing and allocations and what this means for the energy sector

PANEL: Ross Parry - Genesis Energy; Hon. David Caygill - Environment Canterbury; Fraser Whineray - Mighty River Power; Guy Salmon - Ecologic Foundation; Hamish Cuthbert - Meridian Energy
FACILITATOR: Rod Oram - Business Journalist

 

3:10 p.m. Afternoon tea

 

3:30 p.m. Ministerial reply to Panel Discussion session

 

3:40 p.m. Creating a clean, green energy system - dream or reality?
An opinion piece on how New Zealand can actually get the much-lauded but elusive efficient, low-carbon, cost-effective energy system.

  • Our options for energy and electricity supply
  • The opportunity for green electricity and bioenergy to fuel our vehicles
  • The realistic contribution we can expect from a reduction in demand
  • The role of behaviour change alongside technology improvements

Mike Underhill - EECA

 

4:10 p.m. Electricity and Gas Retailers Leadership Panel
Taking the customer forward into the brave new world of energy consumption - electricity, natural gas, LPG.

  • An outline of the underlying supply-side pressure on energy pricing and how this has changed the game
  • Technology’s role and how we can become more efficient
  • Generation at home – wind, solar

PANEL: Bill Highet - Meridian Energy; Chris O'Hara - TrustPower; James Munro - Mighty River Power; Mike Fuge - Genesis Energy; Ruth Bound - Contact Energy; Babu Bahirathan - Todd Energy
FACILITATOR: John Hancock - Hewlett-Packard

 

4:50 p.m. Closing remarks from the Chair

 

5:10 p.m. Close of Downstream